In the realm of global energy, Queensland's LNG sector has been a shining star, catapulting Australia to the top of the LNG export rankings in a mere six years. This remarkable feat is a testament to the ingenuity and prowess of the Australian industry. However, beneath the current glow, a more somber reality awaits Queensland's LNG industry in the long term. The world is on the cusp of a gas glut, with the US poised to flood the market with cheap gas, potentially for a decade. This shift in the market dynamics will inevitably impact Queensland's LNG exports, which have already peaked and are in terminal decline. The cost of production in Australia is significantly higher than that of the US and Qatar, the two biggest competitors, making it a buyer's market where the most expensive player will lose. The reliance on LNG exports is a deal with the devil, offering quick riches but at the cost of long-term prosperity. Australia's economy is heavily dependent on LNG, with exports worth $60 billion last year, second only to iron ore. However, this dependence comes with a price, as the changes to the climate due to LNG exports make farming harder and exacerbate floods and droughts. The question for Queensland is not whether LNG is good or bad, but how to harness it to maximize its benefit while it's here and what to do once it's gone. The first step is to tax LNG properly, as the current federal gas tax is woefully inadequate. Reforming the federal gas tax should be a no-brainer for Queenslanders, as it only applies to offshore gas, and all Queensland gas is onshore. A weak gas tax means money is flowing to exporters based in the NT and Western Australia, instead of being invested in better services for Queenslanders. Part of that money should be invested in the industries of tomorrow, such as minerals processing, renewables, aluminium, and copper. While the LNG sector is making bank, it's crucial to demand bigger emissions cuts. The sector recorded 36 million tonnes of emissions last year, more than all Queensland farmers and industry combined. The federal emissions policy on LNG is weak, and the government should make LNG players do their fair share of emissions cutting. The LNG boom was driven by smart coordination between government and industry, and it will take more of both to drive the next boom in the next industry. However, the idea that we can pin our prosperity to LNG for decades to come is a fairytale, not an economic strategy. The first step is to demand plain talking from our politicians, as restructuring an economy takes decades. While LNG won't disappear tomorrow, we need to crack on today to prepare for life after LNG. Queensland won't be exporting LNG forever, but with proper planning, it might just stay an export powerhouse.
